Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Friday 01 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 63841 (+2223) 1094730 (+31379) 152324 (+5210) 878565 (+23946)
Italy 27967 (+285) 205463 (+1872) 75945 (+4693) 101551 (-3106)
United Kingdom 26771 (+674) 171253 (+6032) 0 (+0) 144482 (+5358)
Spain 24543 (+268) 239639 (+2740) 137984 (+5055) 77112 (-2583)
France 24376 (+289) 167178 (+758) 49476 (+1248) 93326 (-779)
Belgium 7594 (+93) 48519 (+660) 11576 (+293) 29349 (+274)
Germany 6623 (+218) 163009 (+1812) 123500 (+3100) 32886 (-1506)
Iran 6028 (+71) 94640 (+983) 75103 (+1312) 13509 (-400)
Brazil 5901 (+390) 85380 (+6019) 35935 (+1803) 43544 (+3826)
Netherlands 4795 (+84) 39316 (+514) 0 (+0) 34521 (+430)
China 4633 (+0) 82862 (+4) 77610 (+32) 619 (-28)
Canada 3184 (+188) 53236 (+1639) 21423 (+1096) 28629 (+355)
Turkey 3174 (+93) 120204 (+2615) 48886 (+4846) 68144 (-2324)
Sweden 2586 (+124) 21092 (+790) 1005 (+0) 17501 (+666)
Switzerland 1737 (+21) 29586 (+179) 23400 (+800) 4449 (-642)
Mexico 1732 (+163) 17799 (+1047) 11423 (+0) 4644 (+884)
Ireland 1232 (+42) 20612 (+359) 13386 (+0) 5994 (+317)
India 1154 (+75) 34862 (+1800) 9068 (+631) 24640 (+1094)
Russia 1073 (+101) 106498 (+7099) 11619 (+1333) 93806 (+5665)
Peru 1051 (+108) 36976 (+3045) 10405 (+368) 25520 (+2569)
Portugal 989 (+16) 25045 (+540) 1519 (+49) 22537 (+475)
Ecuador 900 (+29) 24934 (+676) 1558 (+1) 22476 (+646)
Indonesia 792 (+8) 10118 (+347) 1522 (+131) 7804 (+208)
Romania 717 (+24) 12240 (+262) 4017 (+448) 7506 (-210)
Poland 644 (+20) 12877 (+237) 3236 (+211) 8997 (+6)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 229180 (+5919) 3220972 (+87477) 960851 (+39806)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 223579 ( +3202) 3121528 ( +39046) 960829 ( +28929)
Sat 02 May 2020 226492 ( +2913) 3157329 ( +35801) 988293 ( +27465)
Sun 03 May 2020 229135 ( +2643) 3190080 ( +32751) 1014248 ( +25955)
Mon 04 May 2020 231528 ( +2392) 3219978 ( +29898) 1038668 ( +24420)
Tue 05 May 2020 233688 ( +2160) 3247221 ( +27243) 1061549 ( +22881)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 4633 (+0) 82862 (+4) 77610 (+32)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 3797 ( +0) 81577 ( +0) 76884 ( +2)
Sat 02 May 2020 3797 ( +0) 81577 ( +0) 76886 ( +2)
Sun 03 May 2020 3798 ( +0) 81577 ( +0) 76888 ( +2)
Mon 04 May 2020 3798 ( +0) 81577 ( +0) 76889 ( +2)
Tue 05 May 2020 3798 ( +0) 81577 ( +0) 76891 ( +1)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 24543 (+268) 239639 (+2740) 137984 (+5055)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 23259 ( +70) 225778 ( +823) 128564 ( +2926)
Sat 02 May 2020 23319 ( +61) 226503 ( +725) 131318 ( +2754)
Sun 03 May 2020 23371 ( +52) 227141 ( +638) 133902 ( +2583)
Mon 04 May 2020 23416 ( +45) 227702 ( +561) 136317 ( +2415)
Tue 05 May 2020 23455 ( +39) 228195 ( +493) 138568 ( +2251)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 27967 (+285) 205463 (+1872) 75945 (+4693)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 26846 ( +112) 196883 ( +665) 75057 ( +1946)
Sat 02 May 2020 26946 ( +100) 197480 ( +597) 76930 ( +1873)
Sun 03 May 2020 27036 ( +89) 198015 ( +535) 78727 ( +1797)
Mon 04 May 2020 27116 ( +80) 198495 ( +480) 80447 ( +1720)
Tue 05 May 2020 27187 ( +71) 198926 ( +430) 82087 ( +1640)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 26771 (+674) 171253 (+6032) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 24263 ( +403) 166550 ( +2186) nan ( +nan)
Sat 02 May 2020 24624 ( +361) 168516 ( +1966) nan ( +nan)
Sun 03 May 2020 24947 ( +323) 170279 ( +1763) nan ( +nan)
Mon 04 May 2020 25235 ( +288) 171856 ( +1577) nan ( +nan)
Tue 05 May 2020 25490 ( +256) 173264 ( +1408) nan ( +nan)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 63841 (+2223) 1094730 (+31379) 152324 (+5210)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 62728 ( +1009) 1057102 ( +12898) 163410 ( +8437)
Sat 02 May 2020 63616 ( +888) 1068714 ( +11612) 171673 ( +8264)
Sun 03 May 2020 64394 ( +778) 1079142 ( +10428) 179708 ( +8035)
Mon 04 May 2020 65074 ( +680) 1088485 ( +9343) 187466 ( +7758)
Tue 05 May 2020 65666 ( +592) 1096838 ( +8353) 194905 ( +7439)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 24376 (+289) 167178 (+758) 49476 (+1248)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 23706 ( +117) 164977 ( +271) 61532 ( +3278)
Sat 02 May 2020 23805 ( +100) 165205 ( +228) 64995 ( +3463)
Sun 03 May 2020 23890 ( +85) 165396 ( +191) 68652 ( +3658)
Mon 04 May 2020 23963 ( +72) 165557 ( +160) 72516 ( +3863)
Tue 05 May 2020 24024 ( +61) 165691 ( +135) 76597 ( +4081)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 6623 (+218) 163009 (+1812) 123500 (+3100)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 6481 ( +75) 156614 ( +298) 119833 ( +1167)
Sat 02 May 2020 6547 ( +66) 156871 ( +257) 120853 ( +1020)
Sun 03 May 2020 6606 ( +58) 157093 ( +222) 121742 ( +890)
Mon 04 May 2020 6657 ( +51) 157284 ( +191) 122517 ( +774)
Tue 05 May 2020 6702 ( +45) 157449 ( +165) 123189 ( +672)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 4795 (+84) 39316 (+514) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 4648 ( +36) 38989 ( +279) 174 ( +0)
Sat 02 May 2020 4680 ( +32) 39240 ( +250) 174 ( +0)
Sun 03 May 2020 4707 ( +28) 39464 ( +224) 174 ( +0)
Mon 04 May 2020 4732 ( +24) 39665 ( +201) 174 ( +0)
Tue 05 May 2020 4753 ( +22) 39844 ( +179) 174 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 7594 (+93) 48519 (+660) 11576 (+293)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 7486 ( +62) 47883 ( +381) 11166 ( +92)
Sat 02 May 2020 7539 ( +53) 48223 ( +340) 11247 ( +81)
Sun 03 May 2020 7584 ( +45) 48526 ( +303) 11318 ( +71)
Mon 04 May 2020 7622 ( +38) 48795 ( +269) 11380 ( +62)
Tue 05 May 2020 7655 ( +32) 49035 ( +239) 11434 ( +54)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 2586 (+124) 21092 (+790) 1005 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 2554 ( +51) 20749 ( +387) 1093 ( +43)
Sat 02 May 2020 2600 ( +46) 21113 ( +364) 1135 ( +42)
Sun 03 May 2020 2642 ( +41) 21454 ( +341) 1175 ( +40)
Mon 04 May 2020 2678 ( +37) 21773 ( +319) 1214 ( +39)
Tue 05 May 2020 2711 ( +33) 22071 ( +298) 1251 ( +37)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 644 (+20) 12877 (+237) 3236 (+211)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 638 ( +16) 12575 ( +162) 3417 ( +223)
Sat 02 May 2020 653 ( +15) 12722 ( +147) 3635 ( +218)
Sun 03 May 2020 666 ( +13) 12854 ( +133) 3846 ( +211)
Mon 04 May 2020 679 ( +12) 12974 ( +120) 4048 ( +202)
Tue 05 May 2020 689 ( +11) 13082 ( +108) 4239 ( +191)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 1737 (+21) 29586 (+179) 23400 (+800)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 1679 ( +9) 28652 ( +27) 22515 ( +128)
Sat 02 May 2020 1687 ( +8) 28675 ( +23) 22624 ( +109)
Sun 03 May 2020 1693 ( +7) 28694 ( +19) 22717 ( +93)
Mon 04 May 2020 1699 ( +6) 28711 ( +17) 22795 ( +78)
Tue 05 May 2020 1705 ( +5) 28725 ( +14) 22862 ( +66)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 6028 (+71) 94640 (+983) 75103 (+1312)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 5777 ( +25) 92511 ( +426) 75790 ( +945)
Sat 02 May 2020 5800 ( +23) 92896 ( +385) 76649 ( +859)
Sun 03 May 2020 5821 ( +21) 93245 ( +348) 77429 ( +780)
Mon 04 May 2020 5839 ( +19) 93559 ( +315) 78135 ( +706)
Tue 05 May 2020 5856 ( +17) 93844 ( +284) 78773 ( +638)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.